This is understandable given that the full scope of the pandemic is still unknown. However, while the very next retrospective analysis of seasonal trends may not be directly relevant, pricing and stock flows will most likely correct themselves as we move away from the initial influence of the coronavirus pandemic, assuming no other economic event occurs. Using Realtor.com data from 2015 to 2019, we examined market trends in 50 of the country's most populous metro areas. With few exceptions, we discovered that homes are most expensive throughout June and July, and least expensive in January and February, with stock typically at its lowest and highest in those months. This is understandable given that the full scope of the pandemic is still unknown. However, while the very next retrospective analysis of seasonal fluctuations may not be directly relevant, pricing and stock flows will most likely correct themselves as we move away from the initial influence of the coronavirus pandemic, assuming no other economic event occurs. For buyers, this means that the most expensive time of the year to buy is also the most likely time of year to find a home they love. If we could predict the data for this year, we'd probably see a delay in those trends. For example, the steady decline that typically begins as children return to school may occur later. If 2020 taught us anything, it's that things can be unpredictable. However, seasonal trends in metro home prices have fairly consistent patterns that we will see again. Insights from recent years will be useful in the months and years ahead as buyers try to decide when is the best time to start. Key findings Hot marketplaces in the summer have high prices. The most costly month to buy a home in June or July in 44 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Buyers who could wait till the winter will usually find the best deals in January or February. Large metropolitan areas experience greater volatility from the cheapest to most costly months. The average sale price rises 9 percent nationwide from January to June, but 13 percent in the largest metro areas from the cheapest to most pricey months. Summer is the busiest season for home sales, with homes flying off the market. In regards to prices, active listings are at their highest during the warm months. Because demand is high, homes may not last long in San Jose, California, and Seattle, where homes spent an average of 24 days to assess in their highest-priced months. Prices are usually highest in the summer and lowest in the winter. Our 5 analysis confirms that the real estate market generally heats up with the weather. Home sale prices are usually lowest in January and best in June across the country, but there is some variation across the top 50 metros. Most, least expensive months to buy Hover your mouse over the map to see the least exorbitant months to buy a home, as well as the price difference between some of the most densely populated metro areas. Darker green circles indicate a more spectacular price increase in the most expensive month. In 30 of the 50 metros studied, January is the most reasonably priced month to buy a home, while February is the most affordable in 19 of them. The cheapest month in New York City, on average, was March. While prices and competition are lower in the winter, inventory is also lower in most areas. As there are fewer properties on the market, buyers may have a more difficult time finding a home that meets all of their requirements. Homes begin to come to market as the climate warms. Prospective buyers arrive in droves, and competition is fierce. June is the most expensive month, with 28 metro areas experiencing the highest prices. July is the most expensive month for 16 metros, and May is the least expensive for one (San Jose). Only a few cities defy the warm weather trend. In Raleigh, North Carolina, November is the most expensive month, and four metros save the most expensive month till last, in December (Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, and Riverside, California). Prices climb 13% on average in big metros. From January to June, national average sale prices rise by 9%. However, in the largest metro areas, they rise by 13% on average from the cheapest to most expensive months, indicating that less populous areas experience less volatility. While San Jose has the highest price increase in dollars from January to May, $143,000, a flat dollar comparison does not tell the whole story. For example, while prices in Milwaukee only rise $42,000 from February to June, this represents a dramatic 24 percent increase, the highest among the metros studied. The seemingly enormous $143,000 rise in San Jose amounts to a 17 percent increase.
Most and least volatile metros
Sale prices in the country's largest metro areas rise 13 percent from the low price to the most expensive months. The tabs below show the metros with the largest and smallest percentage price increases, from cheapest to most expensive months. Buyers should keep things in context. When compared to a metro where prices rise by 24 percent, a 7 percent increase at the low end of the cheapest-to-most-expensive-to-most-expensive-to-most-expensive-to-most-expensive-to-most. However, 7% of several hundred thousand is still a lot of money, but even those shopping in a fairly stable metro can anticipate feeling the pinch when purchasing during the most important place of the year.Inventory climbs in summer, falls later than prices
In relation to sale prices, the supply of available homes on the market, or inventory, is typically lowest during the winter months in the most populous areas. There are several factors at work here, not the least of which is the holiday season. Preparing to buy or sell a home requires time that many people don't at the end of the year. Moving in the cold can also be challenging, and some people may be holding off on selling until they can command a higher price. During the first months of the year, both sale prices and stock (active listings) begin to gradually rise from a winter low. Nationally, the average selling price peaks slightly before inventory, beginning the annual decline in July, while national inventory continues to rise into the fall. Throughout the year, the relationship between rising and falling prices and inventory is very metro-specific. The New York City metro data follows the national trend to some extent, with the highest sale prices and inventory occurring between June and September. On the other hand, inventory in Seattle skyrockets during the summer and plummets after October. In Phoenix, prices gradually increase until December, while inventory peaks throughout February, when most other markets are at their lowest. Buyers may find a happy medium, a period in the year when average prices begin to fall but there are still plenty of homes to choose from, based on where they are house hunting. However, it is a risk. If they wait too long, the homes those who would prefer to live in will be snapped up.Summer sees the quickest sales despite high prices
Homes in the largest metros stayed on the market for an average of 76 days in the least expensive months, compared to 51 days in its most expensive months. Nationally, the difference was even wider: 95 days on market versus 61. High-priced seasons are hot market months, with more people selling and purchasing homes. People are eager to visit open houses as well as rent moving trucks after being cooped up for winter, and homes do not even stay on the market for long. Homes in San Jose and Seattle, both highly competitive and expensive markets, spent the least amount of time on the industry, on average, 24 days in May and June. Despite lower prices, homes can sit on the market for months in the winter. The most sluggish winter demand was seen in Pittsburgh, where homes sold in February lingered for an average of 114 days. Low inventory, the holidays, and the cold weather all play a role in this downturn.Average days on market, by metro
Homes typically sell quickly in the most expensive months to take longer to sell when the weather is colder and homes are more affordable. Finally, and perhaps paradoxically, competition is at its peak when housing prices are at their peak. Buyers in a booming market should be prepared to act quickly and vigorously. Getting pre-qualified before looking at houses can make a buyer's offer more competitive. Even in a strong seller's market, it's not uncommon to make multiple offers on multiple properties before going under contract. If buyers can wait for a less competitive period, they will find lower prices but will have fewer options. A local agent can assist in identifying the unique characteristics of the local market and in balancing budgetary concerns with the desire to enter into a contract.